I recently read this essay. http://richardheinberg.com/221-economics-for-the-hurried It is a long one, and you may not have the time or inclination to read all of it, but I found it very informative. I have a few excepts below. The reason I post this here is that it comes from a website that links to the Post Carbon Institute, but the essay focuses on the instability of the global financial system. I wonder how closely it aligns with your analysis, Karl.
Below are paragraphs lifted from the essay.
In theory, the Market [in the 18th and 19th century] was a beneficent quasi-deity tirelessly working for everyone’s good by distributing the bounty of nature and the products of human labor as efficiently and fairly as possible. But in fact everybody wasn’t benefiting equally or (in many people’s minds) fairly from colonialism and industrialization. The Market worked especially to the advantage of those for whom making money was a primary interest in life (bankers, traders, industrialists, and investors), and who happened to be clever and lucky. It also worked nicely for those who were born rich and who managed not to squander their birthright. Others, who were more interested in growing crops, teaching children, or taking care of the elderly, or who were forced by circumstance to give up farming or cottage industries in favor of factory work, seemed to be getting less and less—either proportionally (as a share of the entire economy), or often even in absolute terms. Was this fair? Well, that was a moral and philosophical question. In defense of the Market, many economists said that it was fair: merchants and factory owners were making more because they were increasing the general level of economic activity; as a result, everyone else would also benefit . . . eventually. See? The Market can do no wrong. To some this sounded a bit like the circularly reasoned response of a medieval priest to doubts about the infallibility of scripture. Nevertheless, despite its blind spots, classical economics proved useful in making sense of the messy details of money and markets.
Beginning in the late 19th century, social liberalism emerged as a moderate response to both naked capitalism and Marxism. Pioneered by sociologist Lester F. Ward (1841-1913), psychologist William James (1842-1910), philosopher John Dewey (1859-1952), and physician-essayist Oliver Wendell Holmes (1809-1894), social liberalism argued that government has a legitimate economic role in addressing social issues such as unemployment, health care, and education. Social liberals decried the unbridled concentration of wealth within society and the conditions suffered by factory workers, while expressing sympathy for labor unions. Their general goal was to retain the dynamism of private capital while curbing its excesses.
There is a saying now in Russia: Marx was wrong in everything he said about communism, but he was right in everything he wrote about capitalism.
The ideological clash between Keynesians and neoliberals (represented to a certain degree in the escalating all-out warfare between the U.S. Democratic and Republican political parties) will no doubt continue and even intensify. But the ensuing heat of battle will yield little light if both philosophies conceal the same fundamental errors. One such error is of course the belief that economies can and should perpetually grow.
In a larger sense our entire economy has assumed the characteristics of a bubble—even a Ponzi scheme. That is because it has come to depend upon staggering and continually expanding amounts of debt: government and private debt; debt in the trillions, and tens of trillions, and hundreds of trillions of dollars; debt that, in aggregate, has grown by 500 percent since 1980; debt that has grown faster than economic output (measured in GDP) in all but one of the past 50 years; debt that can never be repaid; debt that represents claims on quantities of labor and resources that simply do not exist.
there are now as many Americans employed in manufacturing as there were in 1940, when the nation’s population was roughly half what it is today—while the proportion of total U.S. economic activity deriving from financial services has tripled during the same period. And speculative investing has become an accepted practice that is taught in top universities and institutionalized in the world’s largest corporations.
Which brings us to a key question: If the financial economy cannot continue to grow by piling up more debt, then what will happen next?
I apologize, I have been extremely busy with a few issues of late. I hope to resume this soon, I have not yet read this but intend to in the next 10 days.
ReplyDeleteI am completely against the notion of piling on debt. I think Keynsian economics (piling on debt during times of economic trouble to stimulate the economy) is grossly flawed. I believe that if we don't dramatically cut government, most western economies will collapse (sooner rather than later). I am so concerned that much of my savings is in the form of physical gold, as I have no faith in what governments are doing (hence no faith in paper currency). To solve their problems they are merely printing money (devaluing it, in the process and is the reason gold continues to go up). Last week, the Federal Reserve in the US, announced plans to print a further $600 billion, as a strategy to pay off the debt.
ReplyDeleteSo we only have 3 real options (raising taxes further are counterproductive) and only option 2 actually solves the problem:
1. Continue to print money, which will collapse the currency.
2. Cut the government's budget
3. Continue on this paths, until China and others stop financing our spending habits, and then we collapse, be it 2, 10, or perhaps as much as 40 years from now
The G20 summit: I think this summit fits in with this post, I hope so. Hope I understand it correctly.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it kind of ironic that the President of the free market capital is being critised by Germany on spending and controlling markets?
This summit points go to... Merkel and Schäuble (Finance minister).
Merkel: " I believe that free trade should be our focus; that the competitiveness of individual markets should not be undermined by political limitations".
Obama: "Countries like Germany that export benefit heavily from our open markets and us buying their goods", adding that "helping the US recover would be in the interest of the entire world".
Oh my goodness how the mighty have fallen, that is a disgrace. Perhaps it is unfair how often has the US helped other economies, BUT I think this stmt would be ok and good to admit you have a problem, IF the USA took initiative to bring down their debt and reduce spending. IF THE US GOVT DID something to boost their economy and not blame their woes on the rest of the world. Pathetic. Or am I missing something?
Merkel: " it is absolutely necessary to stick to the Toronto G20 summit goal of slashing deficits in half by 2013"
Schauble: " The German export successes are not the result of some sort of currency manipulation but of the increased competitiveness of companies. The American growth model, on the other hand is in a deep crisis. The US lived on borrowed money too long, inflating its financial sector unnecessarily and neglecting its small and mid sized industrial companies. There are many reasons for America's problems,but they don't include German export surpluses."
quote taken from here http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,727801,00.html Schäuble criticizes the $600 Billion new money.
Other positive I think just looking at the surface of G20 accomplishments is that BANKS have to increase CAPITAL. That is the way to go, I think. The banks should be held responsible not the public.
I thought this 2 minute video of Donahue challenging one of the greatest economists in my view (Milton Friedman) was appropriate regarding the conversation above.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWsx1X8PV_A
Friedman makes some good points. However even he does not address Heinberg's central thesis, which is that perpetual growth is an impossibility and that unless we find an economic system that deals with that conundrum, collapse, rather than continuing prosperity is inevitable.
ReplyDeleteI am no expert, but I think Keynesian economics is doomed, but not because of how politicians have responded to the recession. Rather because of what was done during the boom. Paul Martin (who happened to be a liberal) curtailed government spending in Canada during the boom, and significantly reduced the Canadian deficit at that time. American politicians, on the other hand, continued to use deficit spending to finance the Iraq war and other programs.
I also share Karl's concerns about piling on debt. How do you explain, Karl, that Greenspan, a disciple of Ayan Rand acquiesced to so much deficit spending during his time at the Federal Reserve?
ReplyDeleteInvesting in gold has its appeal, but in the end it is no more edible that paper or electronic entries (alas). I am investing in subsistent food growing skills - seriously. I wonder if Milton Freedman would call it political greed?
Sorry, the last sentence was supposed to part of the first paragraph, not the second.
ReplyDelete